The college football world was expecting a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, supplying a lot of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of 3 relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to believe so. A minimum of in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a particularly popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns reaches the futures market too. Bear in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the greatest amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic spoke with numerous bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very respected player."
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Even though respected cash has actually been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public wagerers are piling on Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas video game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only video game in the area. We chatted with multiple bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has crept up somewhat to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at a lot of sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be amazed if this line sneaks up a bit more before kickoff, but I currently welcome any Boise State money."
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Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd chance it wanted. Are the Buckeyes prepared for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable money pushed it to the existing line of -2.5. A somewhat higher majority of wagers at several sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the money has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's decent two-way action at that number today. The overall has increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest relocation of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and immediately our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
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He did note, however, that the book had seen significant buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
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No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
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What triggered the line flip? Simply put, the sports betting action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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